Demography: the study of size, density, and distribution of population. 

Demographers: people who study population and factors that cause changes in population. 

 

Causes of a change in population size 

Birth rate: the number of births per thousand population in a year. 

Death rate: the number of deaths per thousand population in a year.

Rate of natural change: the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. 

• Natural increase: If it is positive; birth rate > death rate

• Natural decrease: If it is negative; birth rate < death rate 

 

Infant mortality rate: the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1000 live births per year.

Life expectancy at birth: the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live under current mortality levels. 

Immigration rate: the number of immigrants per thousand population entering a receiving country in a year. 

Emigration rate: the number of emigrants per thousand population leaving a country of origin in a year.

Rate of net migration: difference between the immigration and emigration rate. 

 

Formula to calculate population change: birth rate - death rate ± net migration

Formula to calculate natural population growth rate: birth rate - death rate

 

Why do some countries have a higher overall population increase than others?

• Variation in birth rates/some countries have high birth rates/more people are born/have more children

• Variation in death rates/some countries have high death rates/more people die

• Some countries will have more immigration than emigration/more people move in

• Some countries will have more emigration than immigration/more people move out

• So net migration varies/could be positive or negative

 

Why do death rates vary from country to country?

Because there are variation in availability or quality of:

• health care/hospital/clinics/medicines;

• number of people per doctor/availability of doctors;

• food supply/diet/famine/starvation;

• water supply/quality/drought;

• sanitation/hygiene;

• diseases or examples/AIDS or HIV;

• wars;

• vaccinations;

• education about healthcare/disease;

• care for the elderly/pensions

 

Overpopulation & High Birth Rates​

Overpopulation 

• When there are too many people 

• So there are not enough resources to go round/not enough resources to sustain all people/people exceed the carrying capacity 

 

Carrying capacity: the largest population that the resources of a given area can support.

Optimum population: the total population at which GDP (per head) is at its highest level.

 

Why do some countries become overpopulated?

• High population growth/high population increase

• High birth rates or reason for high birth rates/a lot of children born

• Low or decreasing death rates or reason for decreasing death rate/long life expectancy

• Large amount of immigration/high positive net migration

• Few resources/resources become exhausted/increased demand for resources

 

Why are birth rates high in many LEDCs?

• Lack of /don’t use/cannot afford contraception.

• Lack of education about contraception/about problems of large families. 

• No access to abortion.

• Traditional views about large families / families want a male child. 

• Polygamy (a tradition - people have many wives). 

• Religious/cultural views on contraception/abortion/family size;

• Children needed for work/to earn money/for farming - seen as economic assets. 

• Children are needed to look after elderly, since there are no pensions. 

• High infant mortality, so people have more babies so some will survive. 

• Early marriages/teenage pregnancy. 

• Lack of emancipation for women/women don’t have careers/lack of education for women. 

 

Problems caused by rapid population growth / overpopulation in LEDCs:

• Overcrowding and high population density

• Lack of housing/squatter settlements/homeless/high price of housing

• Lack of open space/greenery OR Lack of recreational areas

• Traffic congestion/lots of traffic

• Air pollution/water pollution

• People live close together spreading disease/so hard to control disease

• No space for waste disposal

• Insufficient resources

  • Pressure on healthcare

  • Poor sanitation/hygiene/lack of toilets

  • Pressure on water resources: Inadequate (clean) water supply

  • Lack of food/famine/high food prices/less land for agriculture

  • Pressure on educational facilities

  • Power cuts/outages/not enough electricity

  • Unemployment/no work/low pay/exploitation

  • Other 

• High poverty rates

• High crime rates

• High environmental impact of economic activity (eg. deforestation, climate change, loss of habitat, rise of sea levels)

 

Examples of overpopulated countries: Nigeria / Niger / Singapore / China / India / Israel / Kuwait / Pakistan / Bangladesh / Indonesia 

 

Why did the population of Africa (an LEDC) increase between 1950 and 2000?

• High birth rates/growth rates

• Reduction in cost/ access to contraception/family planning

• Education about family planning/sex education/contraception

• Large families - for economic reasons

• Traditional/in their culture/part of their religion to have large families

• High infant mortality - so parents had more children 

• Decreasing death rates/increased life expectancy

• Investment in health care/vaccinations/better, more doctors/nurses

• Better water supply/sanitation;

• Improved food supplies/nutrition/better diet

 

Methods to reduce the rate of population growth 

Describe policies which governments can use to reduce population growth rates.

• Introduce anti-natal policies: E.g. one child policy - to limit the number of babies/restrict the number of children.

• Offer incentives for people who follow the policy/have less children. e.g. free education/health care OR provide free goods e.g. radios in India.

• Set penalties for people who do not follow the policy/have too many children. 

e.g. fines, increased taxation.

• Reduce benefits for people having children. 

e.g. reduced maternity leave/child benefit/child tax credits.

• Propaganda/advertise/ benefits of fewer children/ of small families/ of contraception.

• Provide free family planning/contraception/make contraception affordable.

• Provide education about contraception

• Forced abortions/sterilisation/legalise abortion

• Marriage regulations e.g. encourage late marriages/seek permission for marriage

• Introduce pensions for elderly.

• Educate women to encourage them to take jobs or careers;

• Gender equality acts

• Reduce numbers of immigrants allowed into the country.

 

How can introducing pensions help to reduce population growth rates?

So people no longer need children to look after them in old age. 

 

How can providing equality for women help to reduce population growth rates?

• Women are educated so they begin to focus on their careers rather than raising large families 

• Women have a say in how many children to have 

• Women can choose to have abortions (family planning). 

 

How can improved healthcare help to reduce population growth rates?

• It reduces infant mortality, so parents don’t need to have several babies in case some die.

• Availability of abortion.

 

Death rates in LEDCs

Why is infant mortality high in LEDCs?

• Poor health care / clinics / hospitals / remote from healthcare;

• Lack of doctors / nurses;

• Poor food supply / malnutrition / starvation / crops don’t grow;

• Water in not clean / water in short supply / drought;

• Sanitation / hygiene poor;

• Lack of vaccinations;

• War / conflict;

• Waterborne disease e.g. malaria / typhoid / cholera

• AIDS / HIV;

• Poor education about diet / healthcare / sanitation;

• Lack of medicines / cures for diseases / high cost of medicines;

• Cultural impact specified – for example, girls neglected. 

 

Why are countries with high child mortality likely to have high birth rates?

• people are likely to have many children / large families

• as they think that many will not live long / in the hope some will survive / to replace children who die / know that lots are going to die;

• they want children to help on the land;

• they want children to help in the home;

• they want children to help to collect water / firewood;

• they want children to earn money when they are old enough / to work;

• to look after siblings;

• to look after parents in old age;

• there are no pensions / state benefits for elderly 

 

Underpopulation & Low Birth Rates

Underpopulation 

• when there are not enough people

• to fully exploit the resources/there are surplus resources

 

Why would a country be underpopulated?

• Small population size / few people living there / few settlements

• Extreme climate / natural hazards

• Poor access / remote

• Landlocked

• Large amounts of resources / many resources are unused

• Large amounts of outward migration

• War

• Communicable diseases like HIV

 

Why is natural population growth now decreasing in many countries? 

• Less births/reduction in birth rate/ The death rate exceeds the birth rate. 

• Use/access to/can afford contraception

• People more educated about using contraception/family planning

• People choose to have small families / can’t afford to have large families

• Children are expensive;

• People have career/more women will be educated/ choose career over family 

• Government policy to reduce birth rate;

• More deaths/increase in death rate;

• Obesity/heart disease;

• Drug cartels/murder;

• Alcohol related deaths;

• AIDS/HIV;

• War/civil war. 

• More emigration than immigration / more outward migration. 

• High rates of HIV/AIDS. 

• Alcohol abuse / smoking

 

Why do MEDCs have low rates of natural population growth? 

• Low birth rates

• Use of / availability of contraception / family planning is widespread / can

• Affordability contraception

• Availability of abortions

• Educated about family planning / problems of large population growth

• Expense of large families / children are expensive / people want to buy luxury goods

• Education is compulsory (which is expensive)

• Secular society / religious beliefs do not prevent use of contraception

• People have careers / more focused on careers than children

• Women are educated / many women have careers / emancipation

• Benefits are available for elderly / no need for many children to look after the elderly / old people have pensions / care homes

• Children not needed as workers / on farms

• Get married later / have children later

• Low infant mortality rates

• Same gender marriages

 

Why are governments of some MEDCs now concerned that their birth rates are too low?

• they have fallen below replacement level/population decline/death rates higher than birth rates

• shortage of workers/shortage of working class/less economically active/no one to care for the elderly/people to exploit the resources

• low level of production/businesses fail

• difficult to defend country

• ageing population/increase in elderly people/lots of old dependents

• lack of innovation

• closure of schools/nurseries

• need to raise more taxes/less tax payers/burden on economically active

• need to pay more pensions/provide more care homes/healthcare for the elderly

• economic decline/reduces the economy

• need to encourage migration

 

Why would an MEDC be expected to have large overall population growth?

• There will be large amounts of immigration/attracts large amounts of migrants

• It offers lots of pulls/attractions to immigrants. E.g. employment, political freedom

• Relatively small amounts of emigration

• Net migration is positive/more people come into the USA than leave

• Immigrant communities may have high birth rates

• Low death rates or reasons for low death rate/long life expectancy​

 

Why are countries with large areas of land not underpopulated?

• Many people could be living there/high population density/many people have moved there

• There could be limited amounts of habitable land/large areas of land could be of little use. E.g. deserts/mountains

• Few resources might be available/there are not lots of resources available - Such as coal/oil/minerals/fertile land etc.

• High level of technology in the country (allows economy to develop) without much labour/capital intensive production

• So all resources can be easily exploited be few people

 

Problems associated with underpopulation

• Low productivity due to lack of workforce

• Lower GDP

• Small market for goods and services, leading to ​​closure of services

• Less utilisation of resources = less goods produced

• wasted resources

• Lack of government income, as fewer people to pay tax

• Pressure on working population; Those who are working will have to pay more taxes 

 

Methods to increase population growth rates 

How can governments increase the rate of natural population growth?

• people are given benefits/incentives to have children

• more than 3 children policy

• free places in nurseries/schools/education

• paid maternity/paternity leave

• child tax credits/family allowance payments/lower taxes for big families

• policies to invest heavily in health care can reduce death rates

• building of more hospitals/clinics

• free healthcare for children/large families

• propaganda/advertising about importance of large families

• ban abortions/ban sterilisation

• provision of housing for large families

• taxes on condoms/contraceptives

 

Methods that could be used to reduce the impacts of underpopulation

• Easier visas (for skilled immigrants)

• Lower taxation (to attracts immigrants)

• Give more benefits or incentives for larger families/people who have children/pronatalist policy

 

Examples of underpopulated countries: Bolivia / Suriname / Canada / Australia / Argentina / Libya / Russia / Botswana / Namibia / Mongolia etc.

 

Changes in world population 

Why is the percentage of young dependents expected to decrease?

• More use of contraceptives/family planning;

• Government anti-natalist policy;

• Secularisation of society/less dependent on religion/less dependent on traditional culture;

• More education about disadvantages of high birth rates or larger families or contraception;

• Women can pursue a career/education of women/role of women;

• Abortion more readily available;

• People no longer have children to support them in old age;

• Less children needed to work;

• Later marriage/people have children later;

• Lower infant mortality rates (so people have less children)

 

Why is the percentage of old dependents increasing - why is world population ageing?

• Decreasing death rates/increasing life expectancy;

• Improving health care/medical facilities/hospitals/clinics; 

• More doctors/nurses; 

• Better access to vaccinations/cures for diseases/medicines;

• Improvement in water supply/clean water;

• Improved food supply/better diet/less famine;

• Better hygiene/sanitation, etc.

• better water supplies;

• better diet/food supplies;

• healthy lifestyle/ more exercise;

• education about health/hygiene/diet; 

• Setting up of care structure for old; e.g. homes for the elderly;

• Provision of pensions/pension schemes being set up;

• lowering of birth rates/people have less children

 

The demographic transition model

STAGE 1: high stationary stage

Society is pre-industrial, most people live in rural areas, dependent on subsistence farming - primary sector

• High and stable birth rates

  • Traditional & cultural beliefs (large families) 

  • No education or birth control. 

  • More labourers required

• High and fluctuating death

  • Famines, diseases, wars, etc.

  • Healthcare wasn’t developed 

  • Lack of hygiene. 

• Slow population growth / low natural increase

• Low total population

• High infant mortality. 

• Low life expectancy. 

• A high proportion of the population is under the age of 15.  

 

STAGE 2: early expanding stage

During the industrial revolution - secondary sector

• Birth rates remain at previous levels, as social norms and beliefs were hard to undo. 

• Decline in death rate

  • Better nutrition

  • Improved sanitation (clean water supply and efficient sewage systems)

  • Improved healthcare.  

• High natural increase (population growth)

• Infant mortality falls.  

• Life expectancy increases. 

• Proportion of the population under the age of 15 increases. 

• Considerable rural-urban migration occurs. 

 

STAGE 3: late expanding stage

Post industrial revolution; jobs are focused on goods and services - Tertiary sector

• Birth rates begin to decline

  • Social norms change - women more empowered 

  • Better education

  • Birth control 

  • Less children needed to work; children no longer seen as assets. 

• Death rate keeps falling. 

• High natural increase (population growth)

• Infant mortality continues to decrease.  

• Life expectancy continues to increase. 

• Average age increases; high working population = investment.

• Urbanisation generally slows.

 

STAGE 4: low stationary stage

(stabilisation)

• Low birth rates. 

  • Good education and hygiene. 

  • Birth control available. 

  • Desire for smaller families

• Death rates also low but slightly rise as average age of population increases. 

• Low natural increase / Slow population growth. 

• High total population

• Life expectancy still improves. 

 

STAGE 5: natural decrease stage (stage of decline)

• Birth rates have fallen much below death rates.

  • Financial independence of women.

• Natural decrease in population. 

• High total population. 

• Ageing population, so lot of pressure on working population = pay more taxes.  

• Except for the military, any other job can be fulfilled by migrants (military information is confidential) therefore military suffers.

• Massive GDP decline

• Most dangerous stage. 

 

• Stages 1&2: LEDCs 

• Stage 3: LEDC -> MEDC

• Stage 4&5: MEDCs

 

• Stage 1: small changes in DR while BR remains the same / high BR and DR

• Stage 2: BR stays same but DR falls / BR higher than DR

• Stage 3: BR falls but DR stays the same

• Stage 4: DR stays the same but small changes in BR / low BR and DR